Queensland Election Thoughts

Key election issues, and who I think has the advantage:

Education: I think this will be one of the key issues of the election. After Queensland’s poor results in the national tests Anna Bligh has been throwing money at this from infrastructure and training directions. The federal move towards a national curriculum will focus campaigning on teachers, class sizes and infrastructure.

I think the LNP has a chance here; education has been an issue for a long time and has not really improved greatly over that time. The fact that Anna Bligh was Education Minister while many of the questionable decisions were made may help the Borg. However, the he needs policies, and that is his weak point. I think this issue is in the balance.

Health: Many cock-ups from Qld Health over the last term (Nurses being abused, long waiting lists, the Patel hangover, not enough beds etc. etc.) will not help Labor here. However health, like education, is generally seen as a Labor strong-point. The Borg will need some good looking policies that make sense and don’t cost the earth to trump Labor on this topic (so far, his policy page on health contains no policies at all).

The building resentment against a Labor Government that has failed to really ‘take the bull by the horns’ could assist him, but if there are no high profile disgraces I think Labor might just take this.

Environment: This will be an issue that can divide the LNP, and I think that Labor will jump on it as an exploitable opportunity. There have been no huge Labor blunders that I can think of in this portfolio (maybe the Dams, but these are equally a media beat-up). I expect some Labor announcements in this area, partly to keep the Greens happy, and partly to stretch the Borg’s leadership skills. I don’t know how the LNP can play this one well to keep city folk and country folk on side. Labor’s key exploitation issue.

Employment & Industrial Relations: On the industrial relations side this will be a non-issue, as the Fed’s have largely taken over this issue. Employment and job growth will likely be a huge issue though. Labor has acted quite strongly since the start of the GFC with the ‘Jobs Squad’ and other policies to assist workers and employers through the downturn. The Borg has found it hard to gain any traction on this issue, his one big policy being to cut payroll tax. This will go down well with business, but probably won’t win too many new voters over. I expect Labor will remain very active on this issue – as it will be an issue affecting many Queenslanders directly. With mining areas going arse-up, this could well be a way to win votes in rural towns. If Borg wins the election, he will have to pull a rabbit out on this issue. Otherwise, this is all going to Labor.

Law and Order: I don’t see this being big at the moment. Crime rates are not increasing, despite what you may thing reading the Courier! The only high profile criminal topic at the moment is Patel – and this brings more of a spotlight on health than law and order. This might just be a local campaigning point; I don’t expect any large State-wide announcements though.

Other Factors: So, if you are still with me, you might think things are all going towards Labor – and that is more or less how I think. The weak areas for Labor are self-inflicted, and not due to any super political or policy decisions by the LNP. There are some other factors though, that will assist the LNP:

• 9 outgoing Labor members: new blood can be good, but probably not this much just before the election. This can be spun a few ways, it could be a ‘fresh new Labor’ or a ‘MPs flee sinking ship’. It could be enough to swing a few seats to the LNP; I’ll leave the predictions to someone else though.
• Long Labor Incumbency: This could hurt Labor more than any other issue in isolation. Queensland has been booming, Labor has had unprecedented amounts of money to spend, yet we don’t have a world class health system or a world class education system. Now that things aren’t looking so good – people may blame Labor for ‘wasting the good times’. If I were an LNP advisor, I’d be pushing this one in campaign ads – but they don’t want to rely on it too much.
• Experience: this will be Labor's rebuttal against the argument that they have been in for too long. Not only does the LNP have very limited experience, but they have proven to be irrational and erratic in opposition. If they can't do opposition properly after more than 10 years, why would anyone give them a chance at power? This will probably feature in many of the ALP's attack ads.
  

Labor will want a fairly smooth ride to the election, and will be happy to throw bombs at the LNP that could divide the ranks. The LNP however, will need to pull their finger out and bring some big policies to the table. I don’t think resentment will be enough for them to get across the line, though I’m sure they will try to exploit it as much as possible.

It will also be interesting to see whether the Borg continues his well trodden path to electoral demise, as brilliantly explored by possum.

This could be a no holds barred campaign, I expect some nasty ads to be aired. Lets get ready to rumble!!!

UPDATE: It is 'leadership, stability, strength and experience' that is pushed in Anna's media release.